The history of Wadalba Wildlife Corridor

by David Holland( M Env. Mgmt.(Natural resources)

The link to this article is as follows:

https://habitatassociation.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/the-history-of-wadalba-wildlife-corridor.docx

Planning and Finance Role of NSW State and Federal Governments in Growth Centre Development(Central Coast Region Case Study)

By Dr. Ray Rauscher

Dr. Ray Rauscher 

rayc.rauscher@gmail.com 

M 043 500 4844   

Dated: 23 February 2021 

I submit these comments for the State and Federal Governments to examine in light of the Central Coast Council’s current position in undertaking examination of: 

  1. Options for a rates variation (adopted 17 Feb 2021 a 15% increase to submit for approval to the State body Independent Pricing and Regulations Tribunal (IPART);
  2. Council finances (i.e. expenditure in all areas including staff levels). 

Introduction

My premise is that the State and Federal Governments need to examine how the above circumstances arose in the light of the Central Coast being a declared NSW Regional Growth Centre (commenced in 1975 under the Central Coast Structure Plan (DoP 1975). This paper focuses on the planning and financing of this Growth Centre, acknowledging the Central Coast Region is one of five urban growth centres. The other centres are: South West Sydney; Western Sydney; Illawarra-Wollongong; and, Newcastle Greater Metropolitan Region. Such an examination needs to be undertaken in cooperation with the Central Coast Council (herein referred to as ‘the Council’) and the Central Coast community (i.e. through elected representatives and wider electorate).  Some planning, finance and governance review areas that the State and Federal Governments could consider for the Central Coast Growth Centre (and in turn other growth centres as noted above) follows.

Planning, Finance, and Governance Review Areas

1. Costs Associated with Growth Centre Population Increases

There are Council associated costs connected to the State determined population increases (i.e. an additional 90,000 residents to settle onto the Coast by 2036 under State’s Central Coast Planning Strategy 2036(DPIE 2018). 

2. Financial State Impositions on Council through Cost Shifting

Council carrying many financial impositions by the State as a local government authority. This governance body is statutorily created by the State (and can be dismissed by the State) and without Federal Government constitutional recognition. These impositions need review and include:  waste charges; costs associated with State owned last and water assets such as Tuggerah Lakes and foreshores. The Lakes and foreshores require continue upgrading, recreation uses and maintenance (i.e. dredging and stabilisation in The Entrance). 

3. Major Open Space and Wildlife Corridor Systems

Major open space provisions such as the Coastal Open Space System (COSS) needs review of a greater funding role of the State and Federal Governments (including planning, additional acquisitions, use of and maintenance). In addition, the State needs to examine how conservation and wildlife corridors can be further established, expanded and maintained (see State Government’s North Wyong Shire Structure Plan2012). This is especially so in the growth development release areas such as Lake Munmorah and the extension of the COSS program into the former Wyong Shire area.

4. Local and Regional Roads

Many of the roads on the Central Coast are designated ‘local’ by the State (thus funded by the Council). A State review of all those roads that more logically should be designated ‘regional’ is needed. In additional many roads designated regional and maintained by Council under agreement with the State (with a subsidy to Council) needs an equity review. The State indicated via a press release on 25 Jan 2021 (Coast News) that it will be reviewing these road designations throughout the State to quote ‘ease the associated costs to councils (and thus ratepayers)’.

5. Bus Transport and Bus Shelters

The State, given its provision of new buses to Central Coast bus companies, the collection of fares and provision of information plinths should take over the role of providing bus shelters.  There is a pressing need of bus shelters over the entire Central Coast and Council does not have the financial ability to provide and maintain these. In one suburb alone, Springfield, there are 9 bus stops in the main bus route in either direction and only 1 shelter in either direction. This situation exists in a suburb that was mostly developed in the 1970s (50 years ago). The Central Coast records a low bus patronage (excluding school runs) compared to these other growth centres. One would suggest the inadequate bus shelter provision is one reason for low patronage.

6. Transit Ways

It’s noted the State has funded (20 years ago) 3 new Transit Ways (Parramatta to growth centres: Liverpool, Rouse Hill and Blacktown). This included state of the art bus shelters (with time boards, bike racks, adequate seating, night lights and emergency telephone). There are many opportunities for the State to undertake Transit Ways on the Central Coast. The first such route would be from Woy Woy via Gosford, Erina, Bateau Bay, Tuggerah, Wyong, North Lakes and Wyee. It is understood that the Central Coast Sustainable Transport Group submitted this proposal to the NSW Minister for Transport in 2020.

7. Bikeways

There appears to be a major need for a greater take up by the State in financing bikeways and related infrastructure on the Central Coast. The current expenditure on bikeways is inadequate in meeting the plans as adopted by the Council.

8. Gosford Transport Interchange

The Gosford Transport Interchange needs a total upgrade similar to Newcastle Interchange (particularly the bus waiting area as this area is antiquated and totally inadequate for a growth area).  Upgrades such as electronic bus time signage, seating and protection from wet weather needs attention in a master plan with finance from the State and private public partnerships (PPPs).

9. Heritage Planning

The State needs a major role in heritage planning and signage in places such as Gosford City Centre and other Central Coast CBDs.

10. Footpath and Curb and Gutter Provisions

The State needs to consider assisting Council in undertaking footpath and curb and gutter provisions through the urban areas. It is understood that there is a Council 50-60 year backlog (almost all in established areas) in the provision of this essential infrastructure.  The Council budget is miniscule compared to the backlog, suggesting some urban areas will never see adequate footpaths and curb and guttering. In respect, for a growth area designated in 1975 as noted in the introduction this would appear a dysfunction of governance provision. The issue thus needs a partnership solution between the Council and the State.

11. Cultural and Community Service Facilities 

Cultural and Community Service facilities on the Central Coast need to receive better State and Federal Governments support in planning, financing and upkeep. This happens extensively in Sydney where State cultural facilities, for example, are readily State funded (museums, culture, performing arts centres, and the recent $40m. upgrade of the Wharf Theatre in The Rocks). There is a case study available on the inability of governance to engage the community that is the proposed Central Coast Performing Arts Centre (PAC). The project was promoted over 20 years (2000-2020) by the local community. The failure to see this facility eventuate (as reported in the Coast News over recent years) appears to be attributed to a lack of agreement (in site location and finance) by the State, Federal and Council.  As a result it’s suggested the Central Coast community’s confidence in the three levels of governance working together was diminished. A review of projects such as PAC would be valuable for future proposals coming from the community for cultural and community service facilities.  

12. Library and Recreation Facilities

It has taken Council (given funding shortages and location questions) over 25 years (1996-2021) of planning, finance allocation and siting of providing a new Gosford CBD library (replacing the existing one). On 17 Feb 2021 the Council (via the Administrator) agreed to finance the new library. This suggests Council major service provision requirements (especially in growth centres) such as libraries and recreation facilities needs State and Federal Government review. Central Coast residents note, for example, the State assisting the rebuilding, upgrading and operation of the NSW State Library and numerous sporting complexes (i.e. the 2020 opening of Parramatta Stadium and proposed rebuilding of other stadiums). 

13. Central Coast CBD Main Streets Upgrading 

 The State may need to expand areas of financial assistance and joint programs with Council to upgrade many Central Coast CBD main streets. These include, for example, CBDs of Woy Woy, Ettalong, Umina, North Gosford, East Gosford, Erina, Bateau Bay, Long Jetty, The Entrance, Tuggerah, Wyong, Toukley, and Budgewoi. This could include a review of funding for upgrading and provision of traffic calming, public amenities (i.e. toilets), open spaces, infrastructure, rest areas, landscaping, passive recreation, children’s play areas, seating etc.).

14. Local Government Reform Process

On a broad basis the State and Federal Governments may need to review their local government reform processes. The State for example commenced its local government reform investigations in 2012 (main document being Destination 2036). It’s noted that this process commenced before the State legislated amalgamations in 2016 within the Local Government (Council Amalgamations) Proclamation 2016. The State’s amalgamation steps affected the Central Coast councils of Gosford and Wyong. It is understood in effect that the two councils were amalgamated (as a Central Coast Council) via an ultimatum of the State (as reported in the Sydney and Central Coast papers in late 2015). It was reported that the Gosford Mayor’s delegation to the Minister for Local Government at the time was informed the State would amalgamate the two councils were Gosford Council not to agree to amalgamation. In general the sentiment on the Central Coast (then and now) was that the residents were not effectively and fully engaged by the State in its amalgamation review process. That said, the State may need to review the full implications of the amalgamation, including related costings incurred by the new Council and extended finance impositions on ratepayers now and into the future. 

15. State Significant Areas

A review may be needed on the implications (planning and finance at State and Council levels) of the State designation of ‘State Significant Areas’. Gosford City Centre, for example, is designated a revitalisation area (under the State’s Gosford City Centre Revitalisation Program 2018). There are implications of this designation for Gosford CBD and in time other major development areas that could also be designated State Significant. These may include:  Woy Woy-Umina Corridor; Somersby to Erina Corridor, Tuggerah-Wyong to Warnervale Corridor, The Entrance-Long Jetty and Bateau Bay Corridor, and Northlakes to Lake Munmorah Corridor.

16. Development and Value Capture Planning

It appears that, despite the development of the Central Coast (as a designated Growth Centre), there appears inadequate financing (State and Council) of a range of affordable and social housing, open and public spaces and sustainable transport (examples noted above). A State review of this financing challenge could incorporate looking at expanding the band of urban development finance approaches. One system widely used in other countries and occasionally in Australia (i.e. in transport projects such as the planned Aerotropolis in Southwest Sydney and Metro Sydney) is Value Capture Planning (VCP). The subject covers developer provisions and land value capture levies. See a current book (2021) on the subject of VCP entitled Renewing Cities with Value Capture Planning(Rauscher 2021). The book develops a VCP model and applies this model to four growth areas: Greater Sydney Inner City (Waterloo-Redfern); Greater Sydney Middle City (Canterbury-Bankstown); Central Coast (Gosford City Centre); and Newcastle Greater Metropolitan Area (Newcastle West End). 

17. Future Central Coast Region Gaining City Status 

The loss of the designation of ‘Gosford City’ under the amalgamation noted above may need to be addressed by the State. City status, for example, has a sweat of financial, state, national and international advantages to capitalise on.  The State, it is noted, refers within its State Significant revitalisation plans for Gosford CBD (see above #15) to the ‘Gosford City Centre’. 

The State may wish (in cooperation with Council) to establish and fund a Committee to Investigate Central Coast City Status. The committee would investigate all implications (pluses and minuses) of the potential for the Central Coast achieving city status. Such a committee could spend up to two years to complete its task (including engaging the electorate and working within the Central Coast Council chambers. In time the Committee would present a report for comment to the electorate, then to the Council and the State. The report would include comments on how other urban and regional areas have achieved city status. It is possible in ensuring democratic procedures are used, a referendum on city status could be considered for the 2025 local government elections. Were the results to indicate a majority in favour of city status the implementation of that move would utilise the completed work of the Committee to Investigate Central Coast City Status. The referendum could offer names of such a city, including for example: City of Gosford Wyong or City of the Central Coast. Within a city designation there would then be designated a number of city centres, including:  Gosford Centre (potentially keeping its currently State designated ‘regional capital’), Woy Woy-Umina Centre, Tuggerah-Wyong Centre, The Entrance-Long Jetty Centre, Toukley Centre and so forth. 

18. Governance and Elections Review

There have been recent suggestions by many residents over the 2020 and 2021 period (see Coast News) and by the Council Administrator (Dick Persson) of the need for a local government governance and elections review. The governance of Council (including number of councillors, ward systems, and engagement of the public) is one potential review area. This review may be especially important for any Growth Centre (as noted in the Introduction). A review could tie into the State’s local government reform process noted earlier (#14 above). The review could also tie in Federal Government’s review of local government planning and finance. This could include consideration of constitutional recognition. Finally, there are many other alternatives in reviewing governance into the future for planning and financing growth on the Central Coast (see Cities in Global Transition(Rauscher 2017 Chapter 18). 

Closing Comment.

Many of the suggestions herein in this paper could apply to other NSW council areas (especially Growth Centres). This suggests a full review of the position of local government today in NSW in its structure, planning and financing (including State and Federal government’s roles as noted in #18 above). Any review needs to project ahead to the year 2056 (the year the NSW State is using in its forward planning).

References

Department of Planning (1975) Central Coast Structure Plan. State Government, Sydney

Department of Planning, Infrastructure and Environment (2018) Central Coast Planning Strategy 2036. State Government, Sydney

NSW Government (2012) Destination 2036. NSW State Government, Sydney

NSW Government (2016) Local Government (Council Amalgamations) Proclamation 2016. NSW State Government, Sydney

NSW Government (2018) GosfordCity Centre Revitalisation Program 2018. NSW State Government, Sydney

Rauscher, Ray (2017) Cities in Global Transition. Springer Publishers, Switzerland

Rauscher, Ray (2021) Renewing Cities with Value Capture Planning. Springer Publishers, Switzerland

Is development all there is to alleviate poverty?

By David Holland

Environmental sustainability is often compromised because the poor cannot get basic food and shelter needs. (Sachs & Reid 2006)

Maslow, explained by Mcleod (2007), suggests that finding food is a basic need for humanity and is a fundamental priority for individuals.

Sen (1999) theorises that development brings freedom and a reduction in poverty.

It seems all three authors agree poverty can be reduced by providing food and shelter through development.

Unfortunately, the human condition is not that simple to understand.

Reflecting on Sen (1999), development brings humanities basic needs and freedom, then Maslow’s second stage, Psychological needs, which could include ownership, brings the desire to participating in economic markets, subject to market constrains, access and opportunity.

Aristotle is quoted in Sen (1999), telling of a story about Maitreyee and Yajnavalkya, who pondered on the value of riches. Maitreyee suggested that if you owned everything would it not be fitting to live forever to use it all. Yajnavalkya brought her down to reality and suggested that the pursuit of riches was folly because of death.

If this be truth then why is little being spent on the poor and the environment? (Sachs & Reid 2006)

But to transcend this, both myself and Sen (1999) seem to agree that freedom is more than economic growth through development, it is the realisation of the 8th principal of Maslow, transcendence, which is to helping others achieve their highest potential. Maslow’s 8th step is sadly lacking in our economic rationalist world. Maslow 1970b as cited in (Mcleod 2007)

References:

Mcleod Saul, (2007), Maslow’s Hierarchy of needs, updated 2016, https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html, cited April 2017.

Sachs, J. D., & Reid, W. V. (2006). Investments toward sustainable development. Science, 312, 1002, http://www.sciencemag.org.ezproxy.csu.edu.au/content/312/5776/1002.full.pdf, cited April 2017.

Sen, A. (1999). Introduction: Development as freedom. In A. Sen (Ed.), Development as freedom (pp. 3-11). Oxford University Press, http://ocean.otr.usm.edu/~w301497/teaching/documents_teaching/Sen_1999_DevelopmentAsFreedomIntro%2Bch1.pdf, cited April 2017.

The Collateral Damage of Free Trade Agreements

by David Holland

With President Trump putting trade front and centre in world affairs it is time to examine the effects trade and trade agreements have on both the environment and the poor.

This article gives a brief history of global trade. It introduces some of the fundamentals of free trade agreements and their real and perceived benefits to a counties Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and their ability to produce social capital. The text investigates the impacts of Free Trade Agreements (FTA)s and discuss the origins of globalization, trade liberalization and Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) clauses in FTAs. It looks at the side effects of these provision and gives actual example where they have failed the very societies being invested in by foreign investors. The assignment extrapolates Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ to possible scenarios that would impact the livelihoods of the world’s poor and potentially devastate the values of the natural environment. It attempts to address the question; is investment in development the panacea to the world’s growing population and why is there a bias towards a growing number of relative poor? It will discuss the difficulty for governments, communities and individuals to avoid the uncontrolled ‘invisible hand’ poised to destroying their land, the environment they rely on to live and their social structures.

 

The Article can be found at:

The Colateral Damage of Free Trade

The terms ‘dangerous climate change’ and ‘climate sensitivity’; what do they mean and why are they so important in the climate change debate?

 

By David Holland

Dangerous Climate Change

A better way to put it may be (DAI) or dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

The word dangerous is an emotive word that has no definite meaning in relation to climate change. But risk of damage to social, economic and in particular ecological systems could give more understanding to the term.

The IPCC assessment gives 5 reasons for concern to guide policy makers.

  1. Risks to unique and threatened systems
  2. Risks of extreme weather events
  3. Distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities
  4. Aggregate impacts
  5. Risks of large-scale singularities.

The 2009 Copenhagen Climate congress, which held to the 2007 IPCC assessment, said that only society in general can give an opinion on the dangerousness of climate interference not science or any scientists.

Michael Mann:

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged by the United Nations Environment Program to assess climate change risks in a way that informs, but, importantly, does not prescribe the government policies necessary to avoid DAI [dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system]. It is therefore not surprising that the IPCC stops short of defining what DAI actually is, let alone advocating policies designed to avoid it.”

— Michael Mann, in Defining dangerous anthropogenic interference (Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), March 2009)
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change defines dangerous as “adverse effects of climate change in its Article 1:

“Adverse effects of climate change” means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change, which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare.

“Climate change” means a change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

“Climate system” means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere and their interactions.
Climate Sensitivity

Climate sensitivity is the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 concentration increases. The term equilibrium climate sensitivity or (ECS) is a change in the surface temperature due to a doubling of CO2 concentrations. It relates to what the temperature would be if the concentration of CO2 were to double from pre-industrial concentration. The best estimates under (AR5) is 1.5 degrees to 4.5 degrees increase in temperature for a doubling of CO2 levels. (IPCC 2013) Transient climate response (TCR) is simply the global warming temperature when CO2 doubles in the atmosphere by following a linear increase over a period of 70 years of CO2 forcing. (Nicholas Lewis, Judith A Curry ~ 2014, Climate Sensitivity Fact Sheet )

 Why are they important to the climate change debate?

Most people would understand what dangerous is in other contexts and now we need to explain what we mean in real terms. Climate change will change everything we do and affect our economy. Sensitivity of climate is simply related to how much warming will happen if we cannot reduce the green house gas emissions. It is the warming that is the part that is “dangerous” to our way of life, not so much the CO2 concentrations as part of the air that we breath.

The understanding that the climate and its sensitivity is a story that needs to be told and now is the time this sensitivity must be addressed before the climate responds to us by imposing its consequences on the things we do and the life we live.

 

References:

Climate Sensitivity Fact Sheet, Department of Environment, Australian Government, https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/d3a8654f-e1f1-4d3f-85a1-4c2d5f354047/files/factsheetclimatesensitivitycsiro-bureau.pdf, Accessed Sept.2016.

IPCC, Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science basis, Assessment Report No 5 (AR5) working Group 1: Near term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, Chapter 11, Section The Water Cycle, Changes in Precipitation.

Lewis N, Curry J, (April 2016), Updated climate sensitivity estimates, Climate Etc., https://judithcurry.com/2016/04/25/updated-climate-sensitivity-estimates/, Accessed Sept. 2016.

Lewis Nicholas , Curry Judith A.,(~ 2014), The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates, http://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/The%20Implications%20for%20Climate%20Sensitivity%20of%20AR5%20Forcing%20and%20Heat%20Uptake%20Estimates.pdf, Accessed Sept 2016

Michael Mann, in Defining dangerous anthropogenic interference (Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), March 2009)

What are the most likely climate changes for Australia over the next 50 years or so.

By David Holland

In the latest IPCC assessment report 5 (AR5), entitled Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical circulation, it is suggested that because of the ozone layer hole recovering over the next few years due to better regulation of CFCs there will not be a southern shift to the Cyclone belt. This will mean that Sydney will likely not get tropical cycles in the next 50 years.

The section of the AR5 entitled, Changes in evaporation, evaporation minus precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, relative humidity and specific humidity, suggests that Australia in the southern hemisphere will have higher evaporation over oceans and less evaporation with more rainfall in coastal regions over the next 50 years.

The report shows that there will be more precipitation in higher latitudes and less in lower latitudes. However local condition around Sydney may influence weather such as anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which could bring a cooling and more precipitation. (IPCC, AR5 working Group 1)

As global average temperatures rise the wetter areas in Australia such as Sydney are expected to get wetter and dryer areas are expected to get dryer.

The El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole will work with or against climate change in both Sydney and Perth respectively.

From data predicted from the AR5 document in section, Regional and seasonal patterns of surface warming, it is expected that there will be an intensification of energy transfer from the oceans to the land. This will increase coastal breeze wind speeds and intensify rain and storm events at a local scale.

This energy transfer will increasingly bring warmer nights and more humid conditions to coastal urban areas.

In the section of the report, Global mean surface air temperature it suggests that the 5% to 95% data from the multi-model mean would be 0.39 to 0.87 degrees increase in global average temperatures. This would confirm the increase in ocean temperatures and suggest that inland Australia would be effectively much hotter than today.

Chapter 5 of the Garnaut review outlines the future climate scenarios for Australia.

It suggests that a 1% increase in temperature will have a 15% reduction in stream flow. If this is the case then water may become more of a problem in the bush as global warming takes hold.

If there is a 10% drop in rainfall this would reduce stream flow by 35%. (Jones et al. 2001 cited in Garnaut CSIRO (2008)).

The report suggests there has been a trend of more bush fires and more intensive ones coupled with more hotter days. This is normally a recipe for drying out fuel for fires, which can be done on these extreme hot days within hours. Lucas et al. 2007 cited in Garnaut (2008) suggests that fire season will start earlier and finish later in the bush fire season.

A study of projected temperatures by Lucas et al. 2007 cited in Garnaut (2008) suggests that a 1 degree C increase in average global temperature will give 20 locations of catastrophic fire in Australia and reoccurring within 16 years. A 2.9 degree increase will give 22 locations, 19 of which are reoccurring within 8 years and three reoccurring within 3 years.

This type of fire regime may seem costly to land holders and insurance premiums will rise, but it will hit very hard on ecological systems and their recovery after a catastrophic fire. Then if the location is burnt on multiple occasions within the 7 to 10 year period a very great potential for species inhalation from that locality is highly likely.

Figure 5.3 of the report shows a prediction of 0.6 to 5.0 degrees between 2030 to 2100 for Sydney and Perth with the inland regions about a degree hotter.

The report indicates that seasonal variations could mask rain event intensity due to anthropogenic climate change. It suggests that rain event intensity will probably increase but overall average rainfall may remain the same.

Abbs et al. (2006) cited in Garnaut (2008) suggests that category 3-5 cyclones will increase in intensity by 60% by 2030 and 140% by 2070.

Although Garnaut recognizes the plight of other Asiatic countries and particularly Island atoll’s susceptibility to climate change induced sea level rise, he omits to say anything about Australia being impacted except by refugees from these places. (Garnaut (2008) Chapter 6)

Australia will be hit hard by rising sea levels and Garnaut suggests that there will be some higher floods and storm surges increases due to sea levels rising, no more than some adaptations to materials used in building will be necessary. (Garnaut (2008) Chapter 15)

Holland (2015), outlines that based on the IPCC fourth report the NSW State government in 2009 made councils review flood levels and ensure that no new development was made on at risk land. Sea Level rise is likely to affect coastal regions and development patterns over the next 50 years or so and impact of ecological systems such as salt marsh and wetland environments.
The type of Australia we will expect to see will be in the A2 scenario where the government has not found the courage to take the hard decisions and change the economy to a renewable energy and an environmentally protective economy. The big business mentality will probably prevail with fragmented prosperity and we will be going through a very tough time with mitigating anthropogenic climate change.

References:

Garnaut Ross, (2008),  The Garnaut review, Chapter 5, 6, 15, Projecting Australian climate change, CSIRO, http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter5.pdf, Accessed Sept. 2016

Holland David, (2015), Planning for Sea Level Rise Risk in some Coastal Regions of Australia – A Market Approach, For Land Potentially Effected by Flood till the year 2100, originally drafted 2010, Habitat Town Planning Forum web page, https://habitattownplanningforum.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/planning-for-climate-change-the-risk-model-for-sea-level-rise-discussion-paper-3rd-edition-rev1-20151.pdf, cited September 2016

IPCC, Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science basis, AR5 working Group 1: Near term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, Chapter 11, Section The Water Cycle, Changes in Precipitation.

 

 

 

Modelling Climate Change Uncertainties

By David Holland

Global climate models are used in the Independent Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report Four (AR4) and Assessment Report Five (AR5) to predict future climates.

How have the modellers resolved the uncertainties of climate change predictions?

This article is based on study related to Masters of Environmental Management (Natural Resources) undertaken by David Holland 2016

When entering the world of prediction we are looking into a crystal ball with many possibilities. With Climate change predictions, we may know the past, howbeit in less detail than would be desired, but the future is simply a guessing game.  Satellite technologies have produced data since the year 2000 with increased accuracy which has increased the hindsight data available to both AR4 and AR5. Increasingly data is becoming more refined and reflective of what is actually happening on the ground.

Wigley and Raper (2001) as cited in Meehl Gerald A.  (USA), Stocker Thomas F. (Switzerland), (2007) as part of IPCC AR4, states the main uncertainties are uncertainties in emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing and aerosol forcing.

But uncertainty in the future is about the best guess based on past experience. We do not know how much meetings like the Paris accord will change the governments of the world to react to the climate issues or how quickly they will react and as a result we simply do not know the volume of future GHG emission into the future.

Volcanologists can predict certain volcanic events but the prediction of where, and how big a volcanism events may be, and then how long an aerosol event may last is less certain. All we can say is that there is a likelihood of future volcanism.

We understand that the sun has a11-year cycles between sun spot activity by looking into the past but in the future things may change. As unlikely as it seems solar forcing could change.

But the most sensitive and possibly most uncertain is radiative forcing changes. This relates to the potential for changes in the concentrations of GHG’s in the atmosphere and the resultant heat retained in the atmosphere from solar radiation. There is a range of variables associated with this process. The feed back loop related to CO2 atmospheric /oceanic flux, the albedo effect reduction as ice caps melt and more ocean is exposed and how the ocean and atmospheric circulations will be affected by all this.

The first coupled models started their life in 1995 by the Climate Variability and Predictability Numerical Experimentation Group, which came out of the reconstituted World Climate Research Programme. They were call “Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP)”. (Gerald A. Meehi, Curt Covey, Bryant McAvaney, Mojib Latif, and Ronald J. Stouffer, (Jan 2005) )

Coupled models are more advanced models, which incorporate complex software interactions of data relationships to produce output that mimics a natural system.

They are defined as a complex interaction of the various software components in the model. This interaction produces results that could be skewed by the addition of a spurious variables or a factor in the maths that may be erroneous. So inherently within the model there are at least two uncertainties, the weighting of the variables and the models complexity not fully understood as it attempts to mimic real natural systems.

As time went on several versions of this model emerged and with a variety of data sets being used to run on these models. CMIP3 was one of the better early models but it, as all the models had inaccuracies.

The various data sets from recorded data would produce a range of results from the coupled models and as a result any output from the model would have  uncertainty as to which results could be considered correct if at all any were correct.

Land use changes also have an impact of the future accuracy of a model. Land use change can change the dynamics of the complex interactions of GHGs, flux, radiative forcing within a system. If the model does not have this information then the change will not be reflected in the model output.

The CMIP5 model was able to used much less grainy data sets, which enabled CMIP5 to produce regional climate models (RCMs). But as these were on smaller scales some anomalies were observed on the edges of the regions that did not seem to match an adjacent regions boundary. As a result questions were raised as to what uncertainties needed to be addressed to correct these aberrations.

Clearly climate modelling is peppered with uncertainties, but the argument is that with better and more extensive data sets and the ground truthing of existing models, better models will be made in an attempt to reduce internal anomalies. But the fact remains that modelling is still attempting to predict an uncertain future.

Unfortunately there are a variety of data sets available to feed into the models and a range of models.

The next generation of models were used in the IPCC’ assessment report 4. These multi-model means were starting to be used because the various coupled models seemed to give both accurate and inaccurate correlations to the real natural system as recorded in the past. So if the model produced an accurate simulation on past data then it was reasoned likely that future predictions on simple climate model trends data would produce an accurate coupled data result for the future.

The fact was that coupled data results varied considerably using differed data sets and climate model versions. So it seemed to be logical that if the result were averaged, the results of the 5% to 95% results, (which gets rid of the eccentric data results), we will get from a lot of uncertain results a more certain result. This is an understanding of what a multi-model mean is. A mean of many results of a range of coupled models produced from a range of data sets and a range of assumptions of the future.

The interesting thing about this method is that each model has been set up differently with a range of parameters, some with higher GHG emissions for a future scenario, and some with lower emissions. The end result would be that if the majority of the uncertain future predictions now placed in the models were inaccurate, then the averaging out of the results of all the models would predict a wrong future for the earth.

The method starts with uncertainty as if it was a sows’ ear and suggests that it can make a silk purse by averaging the sows’ ears.

Maybe the analogy is too harsh. It is about the opinions of the model managers who input into the model their best guess of the future. If the manager feels that there will be a reduction of GHGs by a certain date and the majority of model managers believe that this will be the case then the mean of the models will trend that way.

So where does this leave us in predicting the future climate? It leaves us with a best guess solution based on the past’s data collection.

The way the IPCC have handled the uncertainty is by creating several scenarios of the future. These scenarios are based again on varies social and environmental predictions.

However in reality, the prediction that recent data has followed is in fact the highest or least safe prediction for the potential to return the climate to a normal state.

References:

MEEHL Gerald A. , COVEY Curt , MCAVANEY Bryant , LATIF Mojib , AND STOUFFER Ronald J. ,(Jan. 2005) Overview Of The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, American meteorological society, meeting summaries, https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/gam0501.pdf, cited September 2016.

Meehl Gerald A.  (USA), Stocker Thomas F. (Switzerland), (2007), Global Climate Projections Coordinating Lead, IPCC assessment report 4, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter10.pdf, accessed September 2016.

REICHLER THOMAS , KIM JUNSU, (March 2008)How Well Do Coupled Models Simulate Today’s Climate?,   In Box – Insights and Innovations, , AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Publ. NOAA, http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/feda/papers/ReichlerKimBAMS08.pdf

Social justice for poor farmers

By David Holland

When markets are invented that enable a purchaser to buy not only a good quality product, and the knowledge that the product has been produced in an environment of social justice and sustainable practices, there is hope for poorer farmers in the world to have more income security.

Security that involves better profits for the effort expended and better outcomes for producing the next crop planted by the farmer. These ideals in conjunction with the quality of the product are communicated to the consumer by an organised certification system.

Systems like FSC and PEFC have been trail blazing the way with forest products and over the years for coffee and banana farmers as well through the Fair Trade certification for coffee products and bananas through the FLO.

With imagination similar schemes could be implemented for other products that are exported from third world counties to the developed world where consumers can afford a premium for the social component of the product.

However, there should be some caution in developing the market to widely. The force of commercialism tends to devalue the social and sustainable practice commodity component of the product and the price of the commodity tends to fall as the social commodity component becomes the norm.  (Renard 2003; Taylor 2005)

It could be then said that the exercise of providing security for the farmer has then been achieved, but social engineers should always be wary of the market, it has a tendance to do what Adam Smith pronounced, and that is that it always finds the lowest price a person is willing to pay for a service or product.

 

Reference

Renard, M. C. (2003), Fair trade: Quality, market and conventions. Journal of Rural Studies, 19(1), 87 96, Retrieved from http://ac.els-cdn.com.ezproxy.csu.edu.au/S0743016702000517/1-s2.0-S0743016702000517-main.pdf?_tid=5e177a6a-49c3-11e7-a49b-00000aab0f6b&acdnat=1496649090_99cba8c98206f21fe6864909487a559e, June 2017.

Taylor, P. L. (2005), In the market but not of it: Fair trade coffee and forest stewardship council certification as market-based social change. World Development, 33(1), 129 147, Retrieved from http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezproxy.csu.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0305750X04001883, June 2017.

 

 

Urban and rural communities affected by climate change; how can we mitigate the effects?

By David Holland

As we move towards 2030 AD, it is no longer a question of just finding ways to mitigate climate change (Garnaut, R. 2008), it is a call for the survival of our livelihood as we know it. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) benchmarks for 2030 for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are up to 190mm increase in sea level on 2005 levels, and up to a shocking 880 mm by 2090 under RCP 8.5. (Climate Change in Australia (1))

In coastal regions, the effects on urban areas is going to be enormous. There will be less frequent but larger storms with large storm surges. Potential the storms will cause inundate to large areas of low lying urban land.  (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2015)

If measures are not taken urgently to reassess settlement patterns, and the way we insure property assets, communities and all levels of Australian government can expect serious social and political discontent. (Holland 2012 Aug.: Holland (2015): Holland (2016 Feb.): NCCARF) The measures to reduce potential flood impacts and massive insurance claim costs, which are pushing up premium, would be to move urban areas away from hazardous zones. See Holland (2015)

Increasingly, daily temperatures and weather patterns are being affected by climate change. Recently, cyclone Debbie affected the whole east coast of Australia with flood and destruction. (Climate Council) In the summer of 2014 and 2017, the lower Hunter region of NSW was effected by mini cyclones which devastated the region.  In the summer of 2013 and in 2017, the Central Coast experienced very high temperatures. The 2017 event was experienced widely across NSW and Queensland. (BOM 2017: The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology’s 2015)

These events will continue to happen with more regularity. There is no remedy except to move to a more southerly location or stay indoors and have a good air conditioning system. To help conserve power, ensure that your home is fitted with solar panels and is well insulated.

Rural communities in Central NSW will experience more drought, less winter rains and more unpredictable extreme rain events. (Climate Change in Australia (2)) Winter rains often recharge the soil with moisture. Crops like cotton need that moisture for the summer planting season. (Holland 2016 Oct.)

In many places of the Darling River basin where irrigated crops are grown, water from the river will become depleted due to high use and evaporation rates. (Climate Change in Australia (2): Holland 2016)

As day temperatures rise, increased night time temperatures will damage the quality of the crop. Crop failures will potentially devastate communities due to the resulting economic down turn. (The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology’s (2015): Holland 2017)

Where high risk of crop failure and water shortages are likely due to climate effects, it would be up to the relevant State governments to take a proactive approach in mitigating the effects of climate change in these regions and ensure that alternate agricultural strategies are employed to avoid social disintegration. (Holland 2017)

 

References:

 

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) (2017 April), Special Climate Statement 61—exceptional heat in southeast Australia in early 2017 Updated 11, April 2017,  Australian Government, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs61.pdf,  cited April 2017.

Climate Change in Australia (1),  Eastern coast south Australia Projection summaries, Future Climate, Projections for Australia’s NRM regions, https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/future-climate/regional-climate-change-explorer/sub-clusters/?current=ECSC&popup=true&tooltip=true#, cited April 2017

Climate Change in Australia (2),  Central Slopes  Australia Projection summaries, Projections for Australia’s NRM regions, https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections/future-climate/regional-climate-change-explorer/sub-clusters/?current=CSC&tooltip=true&popup=true, cited April 2017.

Climate Council, Intense Rainfall and flooding, The Influence of climate change, http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/5dafe61d7b3f68d156abd97603d67075.pdf, cited April 2017.

CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (2015), Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/technical-report/, cited April 2017.

Garnaut, R. (2008). The Garnaut climate change review. Cambridge University Press, http://www.garnautreview.org.au/, cited April 2017.

Holland, David (2012 August), Planning for Climate Change in the Coastal Regions of New South Wales, https://habitattownplanningforum.wordpress.com/tag/david-holand/, cited April 2017.

Holland, David (2015), Planning for Sea Level Rise Risk in some Coastal Regions of Australia – A Market Approach, Habitat Town Planning Forum, WordPress, https://habitattownplanningforum.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/planning-for-climate-change-the-risk-model-for-sea-level-rise-discussion-paper-3rd-edition-rev1-20151.pdf, cited April 2017.

Holland, David (2016 Feb), A national security problem – Sea Level rise, Habitat Town Planning Forum, WordPress, https://habitattownplanningforum.wordpress.com/2016/02/21/a-national-security-problem-sea-level-rise/, cited April 2017.

Holland, David (2016 Oct.), The cotton growing industry near Bourke NSW A future with climate change, Habitat Association, WordPress, https://habitatassociation.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/cotton-bourke2.pdf, cited April 2017.

Holland, David (2017), A warning to the NSW State government about the potential for the economy of rural towns reliant on agricultural crop income being affected by climate change, Habitat Association, WordPress, https://habitatassociation.com.au/2017/04/26/a-warning-to-the-nsw-state-government-about-the-potential-for-the-economy-of-rural-towns-reliant-on-agricultural-crop-income-being-affected-by-climate-change/, cited April 2017.

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), What does climate change mean for Australia?, https://www.nccarf.edu.au/content/adaptation, cited April 2017.

The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology’s (2015), Technical Report on Climate change in Australia Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions,  http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/technical-report/, cited April 2017.

Sanda, Dominica (2017 March 16), Throwback Thursday: Mini Cyclone lashed Region, The Newcastle Herald, http://www.theherald.com.au/story/4482752/throwback-thursday-mini-cyclone-lashes-region-photos/, cited April 2017.

A warning to the NSW State government about the potential for climate change to affect the economy of rural towns reliant on agricultural income

 

by David Holland (Master Env. Mngt., B.A.S. Env. Planning)

I was alerted in recent news about cotton growers in Moree who have had good rains earlier in the year and were expecting a good crop of cotton this year. They were expecting 3.5 bales of cotton a hectare. To compare this with the top producers in 2012-13 this figure is well down on the 12 bales per hectare in this year and only 5 years ago at a time when the yield earned Australia in 2011 $3 billion from the trade. At the time, Australia was the 3rd largest exporter of cotton in the world and produced a high-quality product.

Due to recent hot weather in the Moree region and adjacent regions, estimates of the crop have dropped to 2 bales per hectare. This is possibly due to several factors but the hot day time temperatures would be one of the major factors in stressing the plant during the formation of the boll filling. This would often reduce the quality of the cotton and causes micronaire problems. Any temperatures above 35 degrees will shut down photosynthesis and effectively starve the plant.

During the summer of 2017 there have been a good many days above this temperature. But potentially more damaging to the cotton plant is high night time temperatures which continues the maintenance respiration of the plant through the night to keep it cool. This does not allow the plant to recover from the previous day further reduce the energy in the plant leading to underdeveloped fruit. (Holland, D, (2016) p. 12)

With a climate change scenario developing in NSW, the cotton industry which provides a large amount of Australia’s balance of trade, likely to be hard hit over the next few years, the State government should not only be aware of the issues related to the cotton industry, but start to be proactive to ensure that the industry can adapt to these new permanently changing climate conditions.

There are many rural towns that rely heavily on the profits from the cotton trade. If the cotton trade is damaged by the effects of climate change, then many of these rural towns will be financially effected. The State government and planners need to ensure that farmers and the industry finds ways to adapt so that towns reliant on this industry are not adversely affected economically by climate change in these regions.

I also heard a separate but related news item recently about the increased propensity of farmers taking out crop insurance. They are insuring against crop failures. In a climate change scenario in the cotton industry there will be a greater prevalence of farmers claiming insurance on crop failure and hoping against hope that the weather patterns will reverse and good crops will come again. This may happen for a time, but if a region is in the grip of climate change adverse to the crop in question a range of undesirable financial impacts are likely.

  1. Farmers will continue to farm as they have done and experience more failures.
  2. Farms that have no longer the right conditions for a crop will continue without considering new more viable locations to farm.
  3. Insurance premiums will continue to rise as more farmers call on the insurance to service their financial needs in the year of failed crop.
  4. At some point communities will be in a crisis where insurance is too high for the next year’s crop and crop failure is inevitable. This will potentially cause a town to decline in a fast and unexpected manner at some point.

The State government needs to consider the subject of farm insurance and the viability of the cotton industry in certain areas. If crop failure becomes the norm, then Australia will no longer have such an export bonanza through the cotton industry.

Reference:

Holland, D., (2016), The Cotton Growing Industry near Bourke NSW, A future with Climate Change, Habitat Association, WordPress web site, https://habitatassociation.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/cotton-bourke2.pdf, cited 2017.